
handle: 10016/48581
The purpose of this paper is to analyze a possible channel through which Eurosceptic tendencies might affect the stability and credibility of the European Union and its institutions. Accounting for the academic tradition that emphasizes the effects of political factors on economic variables, we present theory and empirics of the effect of anti-EU governments on quarterly inflation. In a dynamic estimation that controls for a wide set of economic, institutional and ideological variables, we prove that Eurosceptic cabinets govern over higher inflation scenarios and that their full effect is realized, at least, with a 3-quarter delay. We also show suggestive evidence that the main channel driving these results is expectational and that, at times of economic crisis, the situation is reversed and pro-EU parties actually increase inflation, which is consistent with stability and growth, and reinforces ECB monetary policy.
Monetary policy, Derecho, Euro, Euroscepticism, Government ideology, European Union, Expectations, Institutions, Inflation, Fiscal policy
Monetary policy, Derecho, Euro, Euroscepticism, Government ideology, European Union, Expectations, Institutions, Inflation, Fiscal policy
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