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The price of Euroscepticism

Authors: Velasco Barbáchano, José Félix;

The price of Euroscepticism

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze a possible channel through which Eurosceptic tendencies might affect the stability and credibility of the European Union and its institutions. Accounting for the academic tradition that emphasizes the effects of political factors on economic variables, we present theory and empirics of the effect of anti-EU governments on quarterly inflation. In a dynamic estimation that controls for a wide set of economic, institutional and ideological variables, we prove that Eurosceptic cabinets govern over higher inflation scenarios and that their full effect is realized, at least, with a 3-quarter delay. We also show suggestive evidence that the main channel driving these results is expectational and that, at times of economic crisis, the situation is reversed and pro-EU parties actually increase inflation, which is consistent with stability and growth, and reinforces ECB monetary policy.

Keywords

Monetary policy, Derecho, Euro, Euroscepticism, Government ideology, European Union, Expectations, Institutions, Inflation, Fiscal policy

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green