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Modelos para series temporales heterocedásticas

Authors: Ruiz Ortega, Esther;

Modelos para series temporales heterocedásticas

Abstract

Muchas series temporales financieras observadas con frecuencias elevadas y algunas series macroeconómicas son condicionalmente heterocedásticas. La modelización de la varianza condicional de dichas series es importante desde un punto de vista teórico para cualquier modelo que tenga en cuenta la incertidumbre. Además, desde un punto de vista econométrico, si se ignora la heterocedasticidad se puede incurrir en pérdidas de eficiencia en la estimación y en la construcción de intervalos de predicción. En el presente artículo, se revisan los principales modelos univariantes y multivariantes propuestos en la literatura para la modelización de la heterocedasticidad temporal: modelos basados en ARCH y modelos de volatilidad estocástica. Para cada modelo considerado se describen sus principales propiedades estocásticas así como su estimación, validación y predicción. En el caso univariante, los diferentes modelos descritos se ilustran con la modelización del Índice Largo diario de la Bolsa de Madrid.

Keywords

Varianza condicional, Heterocedasticidad, Cointegración en la varianza, Estadística, Índices bursátiles, Volatilidad estocástica, ARCH

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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