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Predicting Economic Indicators from Web Text Using Sentiment Composition

Authors: Levenberg, A; Pulman, S; Moilanen, K; Simpson, E; Roberts, S;

Predicting Economic Indicators from Web Text Using Sentiment Composition

Abstract

Of late there has been a significant amount of work on using sources of text data from the Web (such as Twitter or Google Trends) to predict financial and economic variables of interest. Much of this work has relied on some form or other of superficial sentiment analysis to represent the text. In this work we present a novel approach to predicting economic variables using sentiment composition over text streams of Web data. We treat each text stream as a separate sentiment source with its own predictive distribution. We then use a Bayesian classifier combination model to combine the separate predictions into a single optimal prediction for the Nonfarm Payroll index, a primary economic indicator. Our results show that we can achieve high predictive accuracy using sentiment over big text streams.

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
23
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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