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Frontiers in Applied Physics and Mathematics
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
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Predicting Consumer Confidence Index Using Social Media Sentiment Analysis

Authors: null Yan Li; null Xiaowei Wang; null Jing Chen;

Predicting Consumer Confidence Index Using Social Media Sentiment Analysis

Abstract

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) serves as a critical economic indicator, yet traditional survey-based methods for its measurement often entail delays and high costs. This study explores the potential of leveraging real-time social media data as an alternative approach to predict CCI trends. By employing sentiment analysis on a large dataset of user-generated content from platforms such as Twitter and Reddit, this research quantifies public sentiment and examines its correlation with official CCI values. A regression-based predictive model was developed, incorporating sentiment scores alongside macroeconomic variables for enhanced accuracy. The findings reveal a statistically significant relationship between aggregated social media sentiment and CCI movements, with the model demonstrating robust predictive performance, particularly in capturing short-term fluctuations. These results underscore the value of social media as a timely and cost-effective supplementary tool for forecasting consumer confidence. The study contributes to the growing body of literature on non-traditional data sources in economic forecasting and offers practical implications for policymakers and businesses seeking to anticipate economic trends.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
hybrid