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Other literature type . 2025
License: CC BY
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Other literature type . 2025
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Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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Robust Confidence Intervals for Autocorrelations of Stationary Time Series

Authors: Taeyoon Hwang; Timothy J. Vogelsang;

Robust Confidence Intervals for Autocorrelations of Stationary Time Series

Abstract

This paper develops a simple and new approach for testing linear hypotheses about autocorrelations for time series with general stationary serial correlation structures. A practically important special case is the computation of robust confidence intervals for individual autocorrelations that do not require resampling methods. Inference is heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) and allows innovations to be uncorrelated but not necessarily independent and identically distributed (iid). It is well known that the classic Bartlett (1946) formula can provide invalid inference when innovations are not (iid). Romano and Thombs (1996) derive the asymptotic distribution of sample autocorrelations under weak assumptions but avoid estimation of the variances of sample autocorrelations and suggest resampling schemes to obtain confidence intervals. As an alternative we provide an easy to implement regression approach for estimating autocorrelations and their variance matrices. The asymptotic variance takes a sandwich form which can be estimated using well known HAR variance estimators. Resulting test statistics can be implemented with fixed-smoothing critical values which reduce finite sample size distortions. Monte Carlo simulations show our approach is robust to innovations that are not iid and works reasonably well across various serial correlation structures. An empirical illustration using robust confidence intervals for autocorrelations of S&P 500 index returns shows that conclusions about market efficiency and volatility clustering during pre and post-Covid periods using our approach contrast with conclusions using traditional (and often incorrectly used) methods. We provide a Python implementation for practitioners that implements our approach: https://eastlansing.github.io/Robust_CI_Acf/

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green