Modern business processes are characterized by a large number of random factors that can affect the characteristics of internal and external processes. The created models use the method of calculating output parameters as an operation with random characteristics of factors that affect the final results. The processes and factors of the project are divided into permanent and random. Random processes are characterized by individual distributions and characteristics. The mathematical model of a business project is formed by a program that performs operations with the characteristics of random factors and risk factors that form the business project. The generated model allows you to calculate financial flows and balances at all stages of the project implementation, and determines various indicators of its effectiveness. To optimize these indicators, it is planned to introduce anti-risk measures. The model allows you to optimize the number of such activities, taking into account their cost and the degree of impact on the project performance indicators. Using the proposed method of analyzing business projects allows you to take into account possible random factors and risk factors and make the most optimal management decisions.