Most of the forest fires have an anthropogenic origin. However, meteorological droughts can create conditions for fires to spread in greater numbers and extent. Two cases are presented in southern Mexico and Guatemala, where human activities have generated large forest losses. The aim is to identify regional climate changes resulting from the increase in temperature attributable to deforestation in the last 20 years. Through remote sensing data, the loss of forest cover, the regional climate trend, and the detection of forest fires are identified. Water balances are simulated in the fire season under different scenarios of drought and high temperatures. This generates edaphic droughts that are more intense than meteorological ones. It suggests that under these conditions, the probability of forest fires is considerable, especially near significant forest fragmentation areas. Analyzing forest fire risk necessitates factoring in both climatic elements and nearby human activities to avoid oversimplifying the attribution solely to global climate change.