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License: CC BY
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https://doi.org/10.5772/33782...
Part of book or chapter of book . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Seasonal Climate Prediction and Predictability of Atmospheric Circulation

Authors: June-Yi Lee; Bin Wang;

Seasonal Climate Prediction and Predictability of Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract

While the detailed evolution of weather events may not be predictable beyond the span of a few days to two weeks due to the chaotic internal dynamics of atmospheric motion (Lorenz 1965), the statistical behavior of weather, that is the time or space averages, may be predictable over timescales of a season or longer due to the interaction between the atmosphere and the slowly varying lower boundary including ocean and land surface properties (Shukla 1998; Wang et al. 2009). In the past few decades, climate scientists have made tremendous advances in understanding and modeling the variability and predictability of the climate system. As a result, prediction of seasonal-to-interannual climate variations and the associated uncertainties using multiple dynamical models has become operational (Palmer et al. 2004; NOAA Climate Test Bed 2006; Lee et al. 2009). This chapter reviews and discusses the current status of seasonal climate prediction for the upper-tropospheric atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), in particular, using eight coupled, state-of-the art models that have participated in the AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center/Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (APCC/CliPAS) (Wang et al. 2009; Lee et al. 2010) and ENSEMBLE-based predictions of climate changes and their impactS (ENSEMBLES) project (Weisheimer et al. 2009; Alessandri et al. 2011). This is an extension of work from Lee et al. (2011), which addressed prediction and predictability of the NH summer upper-tropospheric circulation.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Average
Average
Top 10%