This progressive sequence of ground motion surprises suggests that the current state ofknowledge in strong motion seismology is probably not adequate to make unequivocal strong ground motion predictions. However, with these caveats in mind, strong ground motion estimation provides substantial value by reducing risks associated with earthquakes and engineered structures. We present the current state of earthquake ground motion estimation. We start with seismic source characterization, because this is the most important and challenging part of the problem. To better understand the challenges of developing ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) using strong motion data, we present the physical factors that influence strong ground shaking. New calculations are presented to illustrate potential pitfalls and identify key issues relevant to ground motion estimation and future ground motion research and applications. Particular attention is devoted to probabilistic implications of all aspects of ground motion estimation.