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Contemporary Economics
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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Contemporary Economics
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Contemporary Economics
Article . 2014
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An alternative test of the trade-off theory of capital structure

Authors: Giorgio Canarella; Mahmoud Nourayi; Michael J. Sullivan;

An alternative test of the trade-off theory of capital structure

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the stochastic behavior of corporate debt ratios utilizing a balanced panel of 2,556 publicly traded U.S. firms during the period 1997-2010. We partition the panel into ten economic sectors and perform panel unit root tests on each sector employing book value and market value measures of debt ratio. First-generation panel unit root tests provide consistent evidence that debt ratios are mean reverting, which supports the trade-off theory. However, these tests rely on the assumption that the debt ratios are cross-sectionally independent, but tests of cross-sectional independence fail to uphold this assumption. Thus, utilizing a second-generation panel unit root test that controls for cross-sectional dependence, we uncover evidence showing that debt ratios are not mean reverting, which contradicts the trade-off hypothesis. We find that the recent macroeconomic developments triggered by the financial crisis and the Great Recession have considerable explanatory power over the dynamics of the debt ratios. In fact, when we exclude the years of the recent global financial crisis, the unit root hypothesis is rejected in one half of the sectors. We interpret these results as indicative that the recent global events may have produced in these sectors a structural change in the underlying data generation process (DGP). Overall, then, we find mixed evidence on the stationarity of debt ratios.

Keywords

Economics as a science, ddc:330, cross-sectional dependence, debt ratio, G32, panel unit root tests, HB71-74, G30, capital structure theories

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Top 10%
Average
Average
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