
Using a model of the literature indexed in Scopus, we have increased the accuracy of our ability to predict which of 20,747 research communities would achieve exceptional growth from 32.2 to 39.6 using double exponential smoothing of inertial indicators and by doing predictions in each of 26 fields rather than across the entire model. Each field nominated two (out of a possible 123) indicators as ‘best predictors’ following the procedure described in our previous studies. Significant diversity was found in which indicators performed best in each field, suggesting that field effects should be accounted for in predictive analytics. Nevertheless, there were groupings of contiguous fields with a surprising level of homogeneity in predictive indicators. Possible reasons for the similarities and differences are discussed.
| citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
