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Revista de Economia
Article . 2003 . Peer-reviewed
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ANÁLISE DE QUEBRA ESTRUTURAL NA FORMAÇÃO BRUTA DE CAPITAL FIXO DO BRASIL

Authors: Joilson Dias; Vicente Junqueira De Castro Jr.;

ANÁLISE DE QUEBRA ESTRUTURAL NA FORMAÇÃO BRUTA DE CAPITAL FIXO DO BRASIL

Abstract

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar se houve mudança estrutural na formação bruta de capital fixo do Brasil no período 1952-1998. A importância desta variável para o longo prazo da economia está em que alterações em sua tendência quer positivas e/ou negativas reflete diretamente a capacidade produtiva da economia no longo prazo. O estudo de quebra estrutural é um passo posterior às discussões sobre estacionariedade das séries temporais. A não estacionariedade das séries pode ser devido a uma quebra estrutural. Assim, este estudo focaliza-se neste ponto com relação à série mencionada, objetivando verificar se houve uma quebra estrutural na mesma. A metodologia a ser empregada foi desenvolvida por Quandt (1960), Andrews e Ploberg (1994) e Vogelsang (1997). Como resultado, obtivemos que a série formação bruta de capital fixo não sofreu mudança estrutural no período de análise. Quando considerado o sub-período 1959-1974, que inclui o período do milagre brasileiro em termos de crescimento econômico, este não aparece como sendo o elemento de mudança estrutural que suportou a ocorrência deste milagre. Abstract The objective of this paper is to analyze the structural breaks on gross fixed investment for the period 1952-1998. The importance of changes in the behavior of this variable in the long run is that it means direct change in the overall productivity of the economy. Thus, structural breaks studies give us a better understanding of the changes in the variable regarding its nature of being permanent or temporary. In this way, the structural breaks studies go a further on the issue regarding the series being stationary or not. In this study, our focus is to see if the non-stationary condition of the variable gross fixed investment may be caused by a structural break. The methodology to be used were developed by Quandt (1960), Andrews and Ploberg (1993) and Vogelsang (1997). As a result, we found that the gross fixed investment did not have any structural break in the period of our analysis. The analysis of the period 1959-1974 that includes the Brazilian growth miracle period seems not find support on structural changes of the investment.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
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