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Management Letters/Cuadernos de Gestión
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
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Management Letters/Cuadernos de Gestión
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Banks in trouble? A Early Warning System for the Prevention of Banking Crisis

¿Bancos con Problemas? Un Sistema de Alerta Temprana para la Prevención de Crisis Bancarias
Authors: Ana Fernández-Sainz; Felipe Llaugel;

Banks in trouble? A Early Warning System for the Prevention of Banking Crisis

Abstract

The regulatory and supervisory financial authorities have tried various methods to find an effective procedure in developing an early warning system of banking crises. Logistic regression models have been used but have shown some weaknesses, so we need new and better methods. The banking crisis occurred in the Dominican Republic between 2002 and 2004 has been used to compare the effectiveness of the logistic regression method over the use of Support Vector Machines (SVM) for the detection of banking crisis. In the analysis 30 financial indicators are used to determine which ones are most appropriate to build a model able to classify banks. In this context, the SVM method produced better results than logistic regression, in detecting problem banks and contradict the findings of other studies that ask about the ineffectiveness of the financial indicators to identify banking crises in emerging economies.

Keywords

HF1-6182, logistic regression, Banking crisis, Commerce, Banking crisis; logistic regression; support vector machines, support vector machines, jel: jel:C19, jel: jel:C61, jel: jel:C44

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold