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ZENODO
Other literature type . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Other literature type . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Other literature type . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Earthquake forecasting

Authors: Yerzhan, Orymbetov;

Earthquake forecasting

Abstract

Abstract:This submission presents the fundamental proofs and empirical results of the Flow Theory, developed by Yerzhan Orymbstov. The research demonstrates that global cataclysms are not stochastic anomalies but follow deterministic planetary energy cycles. By identifying specific recurrence intervals (cycle steps), the Flow Theory enables long-term forecasting of high-magnitude seismic and volcanic activity.Key Evidence and Validated Cycles:1. Global Seismic-Volcanic Resonance (8-Year Step):Data indicates a synchronized energy release between oceanic fault systems and volcanic arcs.The Sumatra-Iceland Sequence: 1996 (Sumatra Biak M8.2 / Iceland Grimsvötn eruption); 2004 (Indian Ocean M9.1 / Iceland Grimsvötn eruption); 2012 (Indian Ocean M8.6 / End of the 2010–2011 Eyjafjallajökull cycle).Japan Parallel: 1995 (Kobe) — 2003 (Tokachi-Oki) — 2011 (Fukushima).2. Regional Recursive Cycles (6 and 12-Year Steps):Russia (6-Year Step): 2007 (Kuril Is. M8.2) — 2013 (Okhotsk Sea M8.3) — 2019 (Kamchatka M7.5) — July 30, 2025 (Kamchatka M8.8, Forecast Validated).Peru (6-Year Step): 2001 (Arequipa M8.4) — 2007 (Pisco M8.0) — 2013 (Lomas M7.1) — 2019 (Lagunas M8.0).Turkey (12-Year Step): 1999 (Izmit M7.6) — 2011 (Van M7.1) — 2023 (Gaziantep M7.8).3. Scaling Law and Synchronicity (1-9-90 Step):The theory identifies a "1-9-90" algorithm that correlates the 20th century's largest volcanic eruptions (VEI 6-7) with catastrophic earthquakes in the Central Asian corridor:Volcanic Sequence: 1902 (Santa Maria) — 1912 (Novarupta) — 1991 (Pinatubo).Seismic Sequence (Andijan-Almaty): 1902 (Andijan destruction) — 1911 (Kemin M8.2) — 1992 (Suusamyr M7.3).4. Long-term Historical Rhythms:19th Century (1-7-70 Step): 1808 (Unknown) — 1815 (Tambora) — 1883 (Krakatoa).Supervolcano Rhythms (1-10-100 Step): Yellowstone (700k BP) — Toba (70k BP) — Kikai (7k BP).

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green