
Predicting a song's success based on audio descriptors before its release is an important task in the music industry, which has been tackled in many ways. Most approaches utilize audio descriptors to predict the success of a song, typically captured by either chart positions or listening counts. The popularity prediction task is then either modeled as a regression task, where the popularity metric is precisely predicted, or as a classification task by, e.g., transforming the popularity task to distinct classes such as hits and non-hits. However, this way of modeling the task neglects that most popularity measures form an ordinal scale. While classification ignores the order, regression assumes that the data is in interval (or ratio) scale. Therefore, we propose to model the task of popularity prediction as an ordinal classification task. Further, we propose an approach that utilizes the relative order of classes in an ordinal classification setup to predict the popularity (class) of songs. Our presented approach requires a machine learning model able to predict the relative order of two pieces of music, and hence can flexibly be applied using many types of predictors. Furthermore, we investigate how different ways of mapping the underlying popularity metrics to ordinal classes influence our model. We compare the proposed approach with regression as well as classification models and show its robustness w.r.t. different numbers of ordinal classes and the distribution of the number of songs assigned to them. Additionally, we show that, for some prediction settings, our approach results in a better predictive performance than classical regression and classification approaches, while it achieves similar predictive performance on other settings.
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