
doi: 10.52152/d11474
With the increasingly prominent contradiction between energy development and utilization and ecological security in China, optimizing the energy structure needs the quantitative assessment of its impact on ecological security. In this study, an evaluation system of energy ecological security was established based on the pressure–state–response (PSR) model to assess dynamically the coupling coordination degree of China’s energy ecological security during 2015–2024. Results show that the system coordination degree increased from “on the verge of imbalance” (D = 0.428) to “primary coordination” (D = 0.664) but dropped back to 0.5 = 463 in 2024 due to the impact of international energy crisis, which reflected insufficient system resilience. The research findings reveal that the response subsystem (e.g., the carbon market coverage reached 54% and the CCUS technology promotion rate grew by 4 times) was the key to elevating the coordination degree, but development was still restricted by the rigid constraint of coal consumption (weight: 15.46%) and the hysteresis of ecological restoration (e.g., the treatment rate of land subsidence was only 35%). After 2019, the weight of the response subsystem exceeded 30%, and the state improvement speed (+2.3%) transcended the pressure deterioration speed (-1.8%); the system became stable, which verified the existence of the Chinese “policy-driven” environment Kuznets curve. Nevertheless, the decline of coordination rate in 2024 manifests that external impacts can hardly be addressed by single administrative means, but establishing a complex governance system of “elastic coal regulation–dynamic matching of ecological restoration–international carbon price linkage” is necessary. In the follow-up study, the ecological risk assessment of nonfossil energy should be deepened and policy coordination should be strengthened to facilitate energy ecological security to develop toward high-quality coordination (D = 0.8). Keywords: coupling coordination degree; energy ecological security; index system; pressure–state–response model; energy structure, ecological security, China, fossil energy, system resilience, coal consumption, policy-driven, environmental Kuznets curve, CCUS, governance system.
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