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https://dx.doi.org/10.5167/uzh...
Other literature type . 2011
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Forecasting media market development

Authors: von Rimscha, Björn; Russi, Loris; Siegert, Gabriele;

Forecasting media market development

Abstract

This paper gives an outlook about the development of the Swiss media industry in the coming years. The outlook is based on two cornerstones: the economic development as the basis of a media system within a market economy and the social function of media within modern democracies. A two-tier research design is used to forecast the present development. First, ARIMA forecasting of audience demand and advertising expenditures depict the economic development on the base of secondary data. Second, scenario analysis using focus groups of industry representatives are introduced to predict the economic development as well as the role of the media within society. The results from the ARIMA forecasting show a grim outlook for the press both with regard to audience and advertising demand. On the other hand demand for electronic media is stable or even growing in the case of internet use. Apart from broadcasting the industry representatives do not view regulation of media as a crucial factor of the industry development. But every focus group identified the funding and as such the economic base as a key dimension. As such the results from both analyses can be partly integrated with the ARIMA forecasts helping to assess the probability of the different scenarios depicted by the industry representatives. With regard to the functional role of the media within society all the representative point to the state and in particular the public broadcaster that should cater for the public value.

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Keywords

10240 Department of Communication and Media Research, 070 News media, journalism & publishing

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green