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Decode Jurnal Pendidikan Teknologi Informasi
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY SA
Data sources: Crossref
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Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Permintaan Beras

Authors: Djorgi Agung Setiawan; null Raissa Amanda Putri;

Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Permintaan Beras

Abstract

Kilang Padi Mutiara Jaya menghadapi tantangan fluktuasi permintaan beras bulanan yang berdampak pada perencanaan produksi dan distribusi. Penelitian ini menerapkan metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) untuk melakukan peramalan permintaan beras berdasarkan data historis Januari 2022–Desember 2024. Metode DES dipilih karena kemampuannya menangani data deret waktu dengan tren. Proses penelitian menggunakan model Research and Development (R&D) untuk menghasilkan sistem informasi berbasis web yang memuat modul peramalan, dilengkapi visualisasi hasil prediksi dalam bentuk tabel dan grafik interaktif. Sistem dikembangkan dengan framework CodeIgniter dan diuji menggunakan Black Box Testing untuk memastikan fungsionalitasnya. Evaluasi akurasi peramalan dilakukan menggunakan metrik MAPE, MSE, dan MAE, dengan hasil rata-rata MAPE sebesar 0,495 yang tergolong sangat baik. Kontribusi penelitian ini adalah penyediaan sistem prediksi permintaan beras yang terintegrasi, akurat, dan dapat digunakan sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan produksi dan distribusi secara efisien.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold