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Cobertura nival y ENOS en el pronóstico de caudales en cuencas de montaña

Authors: Trípodi, Daniel; Fernández, Bonifacio;

Cobertura nival y ENOS en el pronóstico de caudales en cuencas de montaña

Abstract

En este artículo se analiza el interés de incorporar los datos sobre la evolución de la cobertura de nieve e indicadores del fenómeno ENOS (“El Niño” Oscilación del Sur) en los sistemas de pronósticos de caudales de deshielo en una cuenca de montaña de la región de Los Andes. El análisis se efectúa para la cuenca alta del río Maule, en la zona central de Chile, de 5600 km2 y con elevaciones entre los 440 y los 4000 msnm. La cobertura nival se estima en base a imágenes del sensor AVHRR, montado en satélites NOAA, superpuestas a un modelo digital de la cuenca, lo que permite obtener series cronológicas del área cubierta de nieve según diferentes elevaciones y orientaciones. Los datos del fenómeno ENOS corresponden a las anomalías de temperatura del Pacífico ecuatorial (zona 3). Para el pronóstico se utiliza un esquema basado en funciones de transferencia de múltiples entradas para estimar los caudales mensuales, y modelos de estimación de volúmenes totales en combinación con métodos de desagregación para estimar la onda de deshielo. En esta cuenca se observa que la incorporación de antecedentes sobre ENOS permite mejorar el pronóstico de los volúmenes totales de deshielo, especialmente en años húmedos, mientras que la evolución del área cubierta de nieve mejora los pronósticos a un mes plazo durante la temporada de deshielo.

Country
Spain
Keywords

Deshielo, :Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], :Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Funciones de transferencia, Hidrologia, Imágenes de satélite, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia, Climatologia, Cobertura nival, Pronóstico de caudales

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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