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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFIDENCE INDEX, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP AND THE BIST SERVICES INDEX: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Authors: Emine Karaçayır;

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFIDENCE INDEX, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP AND THE BIST SERVICES INDEX: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

The financial services sector is a cornerstone of economic growth, with confidence indices and risk premiums serving as key indicators of market dynamics. The Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) and Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums reflect risk perception and investor expectations, while the Borsa Istanbul Services Index (XUHIZ) is an important gauge of Türkiye’s services sector performance and its link to financial markets. This study examines the relationship between the FSCI, CDS premiums, and XUHIZ using monthly data from August 2012-when the FSCI was first published-through February 2025. The analysis employs the symmetric causality test of Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) and the asymmetric causality test of Hatemi-J (2012). Stationarity tests and optimal lag length selection were conducted prior to analysis. The symmetric causality test found no statistically significant causal relationships among the variables. However, the asymmetric causality test revealed that the effects of the FSCI and CDS premiums on XUHIZ differ across components. These findings suggest that while there is no direct causality between the FSCI and the BIST Services Index, indirect effects emerge through specific shocks.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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