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Operations Research International Conference Series
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Estimated Value-at-Risk Using the ARIMA-GJR-GARCH Model on BBNI Stock

Authors: Rizki Apriva Hidayana; Herlina Napitupulu; Sukono Sukono;

Estimated Value-at-Risk Using the ARIMA-GJR-GARCH Model on BBNI Stock

Abstract

Stocks are investment instruments that are much in demand by investors as a basis in financial storage. Return and risk are the most important things in investing. Return is a complete summary of investment and the return series is easier to handle than the price series. The movement of risk of loss is obtained from stock investments with profits. One way to calculate risk is value-at-risk. The movement of stocks is used to form a time series so that the calculation of risk can use time series. The purpose of this study was to find out the Value-at-Risk value of BBNI Shares using the ARIMA-GJR-GARCH model. The data used in this study was the daily closing price for 3 years. The time series method used is the model that will be used, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)-Glosten Jagannathan Runkle - generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) model. The stage of analysis is to determine the prediction of stock price movements using the ARIMA Model used for the mean model and the GJR-GARCH model is used for volatility models. The average value and variants obtained from the model are used to calculate value-at-risk in BBNI shares. The results obtained are the ARIMA(1,0,1)-GJR-GARCH(1.1) model and a significance level of 5% obtained value-at-risk of 0.0705.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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