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Les Cahiers Scientifiques du Transport / Scientific Papers in Transportation
Article . 1989 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Crossref
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Episciences
Article . 1989
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Episciences
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Hal
Article . 1989
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Hal
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Hal Université Gustave Eiffel
Article . 1989
License: CC BY NC SA
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Local analysis of car ownership

Analyse locale de la motorisation
Authors: Madre, Jean-Loup;

Local analysis of car ownership

Abstract

We describe spatial distribution of car owner¬ship and of its evolution between the two last censuses (1975 and 1982). Using a mapping approach we study in detail the areas of Lille-Lens and Lyon. Using econometrics, we analyze all the big connurbation areas and a break-down of the whole French territory between homogeneous density areas.The main explanatory factor of car ownership in 1982 at a local level is the social structure of the population. High population densities (low proportion of households living in single houses) and short home-to-work trips are a limit to households' equipment. Competition with public transports have seldom a direct effect on car ownership. It can rather be understood as equilibrium (growing public transport patronage in zones where the proportion of households without car is diminishing very slowly, low dependance between car ownership and social structure in areas with low public transport supply…). In most cases, car ownership modeling works rather well and could be developed for forecasting purposes. Cette recherche décrit la répartition spatiale de l'équipement des ménages en automobile et de son évolution entre les deux derniers recensements (1975 et 1982). Les régions de Lille-Lens et de Lyon sont analysées de manière approfondie par une méthode cartographique. En utilisant la méthode économétrique, on élargit ensuite le champ à l'ensemble des grands bassins d'emploi (ZPIU), puis à toute la France métropolitaine, où les communes sont réparties par strates de densité.Le principal facteur expliquant la motorisation en 1982 à un niveau local fin (commune ou zone « enquête-ménage ») est la structure sociale que nous avons synthétisée par un indicateur de « motorisation fictive ». Une forte densité de population (faible part d'habitat individuel) et des trajets domicile-travail courts (emploi et résidence dans la même commune) limitent l'équipement des ménages. La concurrence avec les transports collectifs a rarement un effet direct ; elle s'analyse plutôt comme un équilibre (essor des transports collectifs dans les zones où la proportion de ménages sans voiture diminue peu, motorisation dépendant moins de la structure sociale dans les zones mal desservies....). Sauf dans des situations particulières (faible équipement dans les îles, problème de quantification des facteurs d'évolution dans le cœur dense de l'agglomération parisienne....) les modèles fonctionnent bien et pourraient être développés, notamment pour une utilisation prospective.

Country
France
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Keywords

[SHS] Humanities and Social Sciences, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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hybrid
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