
handle: 10419/277298
This paper argues that the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis, in which equilibrium unemployment is determined by ‘structural’ variables alone, is wrong: it is both implausible and inconsistent with the evidence. Instead, equilibrium unemployment is haunted by hysteresis. The curious history of the natural rate hypothesis is considered, curious because the authors of the hypothesis thought hysteresis to be relevant. The various methods that have been used to model hysteresis in economic systems are outlined, including the Preisach model with its selective, erasable memory properties. The evidence regarding hysteresis effects on output and unemployment is then reviewed.
unemployment, N01, natural rate hypothesis, ddc:330, Unemployment, Natural Rate Hypothesis, Hysteresis, C60, hysteresis, E12, E24, B22, unemployment, natural rate hypothesis, hysteresis, E31, jel: jel:C60, jel: jel:B22, jel: jel:E31, jel: jel:E12, jel: jel:E24, jel: jel:N01
unemployment, N01, natural rate hypothesis, ddc:330, Unemployment, Natural Rate Hypothesis, Hysteresis, C60, hysteresis, E12, E24, B22, unemployment, natural rate hypothesis, hysteresis, E31, jel: jel:C60, jel: jel:B22, jel: jel:E31, jel: jel:E12, jel: jel:E24, jel: jel:N01
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 10 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
