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Theoretical Economics
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC
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Theoretical Economics
Article
License: CC BY NC
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Article . 2021
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EconStor
Article . 2021
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Macro‐financial volatility under dispersed information

Macro-financial volatility under dispersed information
Authors: Miao, Jianjun; Wu, Jieran; Young, Eric R.;

Macro‐financial volatility under dispersed information

Abstract

We provide a production‐based asset pricing model with dispersed information and small deviations from full rational expectations. In the model, aggregate output and equity prices depend on the higher‐order beliefs about aggregate demand and individual stochastic discount factors. We prove that equity price volatility becomes arbitrarily large as the volatility of idiosyncratic shocks diverges to infinity due to the interaction of signal extraction with idiosyncratic trading decisions, while aggregate output volatility falls. We propose a two‐step spectral factorization method that permits closed‐form solutions in the frequency domain applicable to a wide range of models with more hidden states than signals. Our model can quantitatively match output and equity volatilities observed in U.S. data.

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Keywords

dispersed information, higher-order beliefs, ddc:330, incomplete markets, G14, asset pricing, frequency domain analysis, Dispersed information, business cycles, E44, G12, Interest rates, asset pricing, etc. (stochastic models), E32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Top 10%
gold