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Econometrica
Article
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Econometrica
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2015
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UNC Dataverse
Article . 2015
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Equivalence Between Out-of-Sample Forecast Comparisons and Wald Statistics

Equivalence between out-of-sample forecast comparisons and Wald statistics
Authors: HANSEN, Peter Reinhard; TIMMERMANN, Allan;

Equivalence Between Out-of-Sample Forecast Comparisons and Wald Statistics

Abstract

We demonstrate the asymptotic equivalence between commonly used test statistics for out-of-sample forecasting performance and conventional Wald statistics. This equivalence greatly simplifies the computational burden of calculating recursive out-of-sample test statistics and their critical values. For the case with nested models, we show that the limit distribution, which has previously been expressed through stochastic integrals, has a simple representation in terms of -distributed random variables and we derive its density. We also generalize the limit theory to cover local alternatives and characterize the power properties of the test.

Country
Italy
Keywords

General nonlinear regression, nested models, out-of-sample forecast evaluation, testing, Inference from stochastic processes and prediction

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
35
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze