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Estudios Públicos
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Estudios Públicos
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La trampa del ingreso medio como convergencia a clubes de ingresos relativos

Authors: Guillermo Le Fort;

La trampa del ingreso medio como convergencia a clubes de ingresos relativos

Abstract

espanolEl concepto de trampa de los ingresos medios, aunque ampliamente utilizado, sigue siendo vago y controversial. No existe una teoria clara que explique como los paises de ingresos medios pueden avanzar hasta alcanzar el desarrollo o quedar entrampados, ni tampoco existe consenso academico sobre la existencia de tal trampa. En este articulo se busca aportar evidencia al respecto, diferenciando tres clubes de ingresos en los que los paises pueden mantenerse o converger: pobres, de ingresos medios y desarrollados. Se verifica la existencia de la trampa y se identifica cuales paises de ingresos medios se encuentran en ella. Empiricamente, un pais esta en la trampa cuando atraviesa una interrupcion en su proceso de convergencia al desarrollo, cuando la velocidad de convergencia se hace cero. La trampa se da en el rango de ingreso medio, cuando el pais registra entre un 25% y un 50% del ingreso per capita relativo al de paises avanzados. La convergencia en clubes se da en los datos y la graduacion hacia el desarrollo en los ultimos 70 anos ha sido unicamente posible para un grupo de paises asiaticos y europeos. Por ultimo, verificamos la existencia de la trampa del ingreso medio. Esta afecta a mas de la mitad de las economias en ese rango de ingresos relativos, y tiene una prevalencia especialmente alta en Latinoamerica y el Caribe, donde Chile pos-2015 es uno de los paises entrampados. EnglishThe concept of middle-income trap, although widely used, remains vague and controversial as there is no clear theory that explains how middle-income countries can advance towards development, nor academic consensus on the existence of a trap that prevents this advancement. This article aims to provide evidence in this regard, differentiating three income clubs in which countries can either stay or converge: poor, middle-income, and developed income clubs. The existence of the trap is verified, and the middle-income countries are identified. Empirically, a country is in the trap when it goes through an interruption in its process of convergence to development. This occurs in the middle-income range, between 25% and 50% of per capita income relative to that of advanced countries. A country is trapped when the speed of convergence becomes zero in that income range. Convergence to clubs is observed in the data, and graduation towards development has been possible in the last 70 years only for a group of Asian and European countries. Finally, we verify the existence of the middle-income trap, which affects more than half of the economies in that range of relative income and that has an especially high prevalence in Latin America and the Caribbean, where Chile post 2015 is one of entrapped countries.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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