Abstract We empirically evaluate the predictive power of money growth measured by M2 for stock returns of the S&P 500 index. We use monthly US data and predict multiperiod returns over 1, 3, and 5 years with long-horizon regressions. In-sample regressions show that money growth is useful for predicting returns. Higher recent money growth has a significantly negative effect on subsequent returns of the S&P 500. An out-of-sample analysis shows that a simple model with money growth as a single predictor performs as goods as the constant expected returns model, while models with several predictor variables perform worse than those simple models. Geldmengenwachstum und Aktienmarktrenditen Zusammenfassung In diesem Artikel wird die Vorhersagekraft des Geldmengenwachstums, welches mit dem Geldmengenaggregat M2 gemessen wird, fur die Aktienrenditen des S&P 500 Indices gemessen. Wir verwenden Monatsdaten der USA und prognostizieren Mehrperiodenrenditen uber 1, 3 und 5 Jahre mit Regressionsmodellen. Die Ergebnisse ...