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https://doi.org/10.36227/techr...
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
https://doi.org/10.36227/techr...
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Machine Learning for National Mortality Forecasting Using Extreme Heat Events

Authors: Aran Pandey;

Machine Learning for National Mortality Forecasting Using Extreme Heat Events

Abstract

<p>A recent paper utilized a deep learning methodology when analyzing multivariate time series data to forecast mortality in Southern Africa. However, the high distributional variance of the data hindered the performance of the model. Another recent paper utilized a statistical machine learning approach to analyze mortality in the United States but failed to provide a comprehensive forecast as parts of the dataset were removed. Our paper seeks to improve upon these previous methods by utilizing Extreme Heat Events (EHE) data and an autoregressive machine learning model for forecasting mortality. We are able to demonstrate a high correlation between EHE's and Mortality through their higher accuracy scores in forecasting national mortality through two comparative experiments. Additionally, the high 0.91 R Squared accuracy score of our autoregressive multilayer perceptron model further reinforced the necessity for the role of machine learning in mortality forecasting. Ultimately, our research demonstrates the importance of including EHE's and machine learning methods as factors when considering mortality forecasting.</p>

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
hybrid