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https://doi.org/10.35537/10915...
Doctoral thesis . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Crossref
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El multiplicador fiscal en Argentina

Evaluando la relevancia del contexto macroeconómico
Authors: Borgo, Julián;

El multiplicador fiscal en Argentina

Abstract

Este trabajo estudia el multiplicador del gasto público en Argentina desde un ángulo no abordado por la literatura previa para el país: su potencial dependencia del contexto macroeconómico. En particular, se evalúa si un shock de gasto público tiene impactos diferenciales sobre la actividad económica según: i) la fase del ciclo económico; ii) el régimen de tipo de cambio; iii) el grado de apertura comercial; y iv) el nivel de endeudamiento público. Utilizando la metodología de proyecciones locales de Jordà (2005) y la estrategia de identificación de Blanchard & Perotti (2002), los principales resultados indican que en promedio el multiplicador del gasto público en Argentina es, en línea con evidencia previa, menor a 1. Además, i) no se encuentran multiplicadores diferentes entre recesiones y expansiones económicas; ii) durante períodos de tipo de cambio fijo (flexible) el multiplicador es mayor a 2 (no difiere estadísticamente de cero); iii) en el corto plazo, los multiplicadores son levemente mayores en contextos de baja apertura comercial y bajo endeudamiento público. Estos resultados se encuentran en línea con la evidencia internacional y con las predicciones típicas de los modelos IS-LM y Mundell-Fleming. En su conjunto las estimaciones pueden ser útiles para pensar el diseño de la política fiscal en Argentina.

Country
Argentina
Related Organizations
Keywords

Multiplicador Fiscal, Proyecciones Locales, 330, Ciencias Económicas, Argentina, Ciclo económico

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid