We provide a novel daily decomposition of the real exchange rate that exploits a direct link between bond and foreign exchange (FX) markets. Real exchange rate dynamics can be attributed to changes in the expected future level of the exchange rate; cross-country differentials of expected inflation, yields and bond term premia; and an FX risk premium. Through a variance decomposition exercise, we find that the FX risk premium is the dominant component. Monetary policies and macroeconomic news announcements largely move the real exchange through changes in the FX risk premium.

Related Organizations

Bank of Canada
Canada

Keywords

Monetary policy transmission, ddc:330, Exchange rates, G12, Asset pricing, International financial markets, E43, F31

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