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Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Article
License: CC BY
Data sources: UnpayWall
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Comparison of Precipitation and Streamflow Correcting for Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts

Authors: Yilu Li; Yunzhong Jiang; Xiaohui Lei; Fuqiang Tian; Hao Duan; Hui Lu;

Comparison of Precipitation and Streamflow Correcting for Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts

Abstract

Meteorological centers constantly make efforts to provide more skillful seasonal climate forecast, which has the potential to improve streamflow forecasts. A common approach is to bias-correct the general circulation model (GCM) forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. Less attention has been paid to the issue of bias-corrected streamflow forecasts that were generated by GCM forecasts. This study compares the effect of bias-corrected GCM forecasts and bias-corrected streamflow outputs on the improvement of streamflow forecast efficiency. Based on the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB), the authors compare three forecasting scenarios: original forecasts, bias-corrected precipitation forecasts and bias-corrected streamflow forecasts. We apply the quantile mapping method to bias-correct precipitation forecasts and the linear scaling method to bias-correct the original streamflow forecasts. A semi-distributed hydrological model, namely the Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed (THREW) model, is employed to transform precipitation into streamflow. The effects of bias-corrected precipitation and bias-corrected streamflow are assessed in terms of accuracy, reliability, sharpness and overall performance. The results show that both bias-corrected precipitation and bias-corrected streamflow can considerably increase the overall forecast skill in comparison to the original streamflow forecasts. Bias-corrected precipitation contributes mainly to improving the forecast reliability and sharpness, while bias-corrected streamflow is successful in increasing the forecast accuracy and overall performance of the ensemble forecasts.

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Keywords

quantile mapping, Upper Hanjiang River Basin, linear scaling, bias-correcting, ECMWF System 4

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold