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Mathematics
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Mathematics
Article . 2022
Data sources: DOAJ
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Projecting Mortality Rates Using a Markov Chain

Authors: Jaap Spreeuw; Iqbal Owadally; Muhammad Kashif;

Projecting Mortality Rates Using a Markov Chain

Abstract

We present a mortality model where future stochastic changes in population-wide mortality are driven by a finite-state hierarchical Markov chain. A baseline mortality in an initial ‘Alive’ state is calculated as the average logarithm of the observed mortality rates. There are several more ‘Alive’ states and a jump to the next ‘Alive’ state leads to a change (typically, an improvement) in mortality. In order to estimate the model parameters, we minimized a weighted average quadratic distance between the observed mortality rates and expected mortality rates. A two-step estimation procedure was used, and a closed-form solution for the optimal estimates of model parameters was derived in the first step, which means that the model could be parameterized very fast and efficiently. The model was then extended to allow for age effects whereby stochastic mortality improvements also depend on age. Forecasting relies on state space augmentation and an innovations state space time series model. We show that, in terms of forecasting, our model outperforms a naïve model of static mortality within a few years. The Markov approach also permits an exact computation of mortality indices, such as the complete expectation of life and annuity present values, which are key in the life insurance and pension industries.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

HD, model calibration, Markov chain, mortality forecasting, pensions, HM, GF, mortality forecasting; Markov chain; model calibration; life insurance; pensions, life insurance, QA1-939, QA, Mathematics

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    popularity
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    influence
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    impulse
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold