Based on the driving force–pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) model, a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed. The index weight is determined by the combination weighting method in combination with the data of 2010–2019. The TOPSIS model is used to comprehensively analyze the water resource carrying capacity of Zhengzhou as the central city in China with a developed economy and relatively short water resources. The study results are as follows. (1) During the sample period, the comprehensive evaluation value of water resources carrying capacity of Zhengzhou increases from 0.4183 in 2010 to 0.5560 in 2019, with an overall fluctuating rise. Simultaneously, the water resource carrying capacity grade improves from Grade III (normal carrying capacity) to Grade II (good carrying capacity). (2) The contribution of each subsystem to the comprehensive evaluation value increases year by year. Among them, S subsystem and I subsystem make the largest contribution to the comprehensive carrying capacity. R subsystem makes a relatively stable contribution to the overall carrying capacity. Affected by GDP growth rate and uneven temporal–spatial distribution of water resources in Zhengzhou, the D subsystem and P subsystem of water resource carrying capacities show the fluctuating change. Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the level of water resource carrying capacity of Zhengzhou.