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Forecasting the Largest Expected Earthquake in Canadian Seismogenic Zones

Authors: Kanakom Thongmeesang; Robert Shcherbakov;

Forecasting the Largest Expected Earthquake in Canadian Seismogenic Zones

Abstract

Significant earthquakes can cause widespread infrastructure damage, social implications, and substantial economic losses. To mitigate these impacts, earthquake forecasting models have been developed to estimate earthquake occurrences and improve recovery efforts, with the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being the most informative statistical framework for characterizing earthquake sequences. In this study, the ETAS model is used to estimate the model parameters for seismicity in Canada using the historical earthquake catalogue and to forecast long-term seismicity for seven different regions in Canada. Furthermore, the model is used to generate synthetic earthquake catalogues in order to assess its ability to replicate observed seismic patterns. The study identifies the southwestern region of Canada, associated with the coastal area of British Columbia, as being at the highest seismic risk, with a 66% exceedance probability for M7.5 events or above to occur in 30 years. In contrast, Alberta features the least seismic risk, with a 4% exceedance probability for events above 6.5 magnitude. For southeastern Canada, associated with Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec, an exceedance probability of 74% for events above 6.0 magnitude poses the potential for significant damage due to the larger exposed population. Moreover, the resulting seismicity maps show the model’s capability for real-events analysis, but improvements are needed for further applications.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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gold