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Probability via Expectation Measures

Authors: Peter Harremoës;

Probability via Expectation Measures

Abstract

Since the seminal work of Kolmogorov, probability theory has been based on measure theory, where the central components are so-called probability measures, defined as measures with total mass equal to 1. In Kolmogorov’s theory, a probability measure is used to model an experiment with a single outcome that will belong to exactly one out of several disjoint sets. In this paper, we present a different basic model where an experiment results in a multiset, i.e., for each of the disjoint sets we obtain the number of observations in the set. This new framework is consistent with Kolmogorov’s theory, but the theory focuses on expected values rather than probabilities. We present examples from testing goodness-of-fit, Bayesian statistics, and quantum theory, where the shifted focus gives new insight or better performance. We also provide several new theorems that address some problems related to the change in focus.

Keywords

QB460-466, category, expected value, Science, Physics, QC1-999, Q, expectation measure, extended probabilistic power domain, Gaussian approximation, double slit experiment, Astrophysics, Article

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold
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