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The Role of Complex Analysis in Modelling Economic Growth

Authors: Angelica Sbardella; Emanuele Pugliese; Andrea Zaccaria; Pasquale Scaramozzino;

The Role of Complex Analysis in Modelling Economic Growth

Abstract

Development and growth are complex and tumultuous processes. Modern economic growth theories identify some key determinants of economic growth. However, the relative importance of the determinants remains unknown, and additional variables may help clarify the directions and dimensions of the interactions. The novel stream of literature on economic complexity goes beyond aggregate measures of productive inputs and considers instead a more granular and structural view of the productive possibilities of countries, i.e., their capabilities. Different endowments of capabilities are crucial ingredients in explaining differences in economic performances. In this paper we employ economic fitness, a measure of productive capabilities obtained through complex network techniques. Focusing on the combined roles of fitness and some more traditional drivers of growth—GDP per capita, capital intensity, employment ratio, life expectancy, human capital and total factor productivity—we build a bridge between economic growth theories and the economic complexity literature. Our findings show that fitness plays a crucial role in fostering economic growth and, when it is included in the analysis, can be either complementary to traditional drivers of growth or can completely overshadow them. Notably, for the most complex countries, which have the most diversified export baskets and the largest endowments of capabilities, fitness is complementary to the chosen growth determinants in enhancing economic growth. The empirical findings are in agreement with neoclassical and endogenous growth theories. By contrast, for countries with intermediate and low capability levels, fitness emerges as the key growth driver. This suggests that economic models should account for capabilities; in fact, describing the technological possibilities of countries solely in terms of their production functions may lead to a misinterpretation of the roles of factors.

Country
Italy
Keywords

General Economics (econ.GN), capabilitie, Science, QC1-999, Astrophysics, Settore SECS-P/01 - ECONOMIA POLITICA, BIOLOGIA E MEDICINA), Article, FOS: Economics and business, economic fitness, AMBIENTALI, 339, economic fitness; complexity; capabilities; economic growth, capabilities, Economics - General Economics, Physics, Q, Settore FIS/07 - FISICA APPLICATA (A BENI CULTURALI, 8520, economic growth, QB460-466, economic fitne, complexity

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
27
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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gold