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Climate
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Climate
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Population-Weighted Degree-Days over Southeast Europe—Near Past Climate Evaluation and Future Projections with NEX-GDDP CMIP6 Ensemble

Authors: Hristo Chervenkov; Kiril Slavov;

Population-Weighted Degree-Days over Southeast Europe—Near Past Climate Evaluation and Future Projections with NEX-GDDP CMIP6 Ensemble

Abstract

The ongoing and projected future climate change impacts the heating, cooling, and air-conditioning sectors both directly and indirectly. The consideration of heating, cooling, and energy degree-days is a consistent, robust, and widely used approach for quantitatively estimating the energy demand of closed environments based on outdoor thermal conditions. Hence, the spatial distribution and the long-term changes in this demand depend on on the quantity of final users for such services; it is essential to consider demographic data in the assessment. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the population-weighted degree-days for the near past and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario-driven future over Southeast Europe for all four ‘Tier 1’ Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) based on the methodology of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office and performed using large NEX-GDDP CMIP6 ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs) and up to date population dynamics data from the NASA’s SEDAC. As an expression of regional warming tendencies, the study reveals an overall reduction in heating and an increase in cooling degree-days, confirming the leading role of the climate. We also provide evidences for the influence of the population factor, which significantly alters the region’s degree-day climatology in both space and time. The resulting overall picture on country-wide and regional level is complex; in some cases, the population dynamics is projected to outbalance the thermal-induced changes.

Keywords

NEX-GDDP CMIP6 multimodel ensemble, AR6 SSPs, population-weighted degree-days

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold