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P-Values: Misunderstood and Misused

Authors: Vidgen, B; Yasseri, T;

P-Values: Misunderstood and Misused

Abstract

P-values are widely used in both the social and natural sciences to quantify the statistical significance of observed results. The recent surge of big data research has made the p-value an even more popular tool to test the significance of a study. However, substantial literature has been produced critiquing how p-values are used and understood. In this paper we review this recent critical literature, much of which is routed in the life sciences, and consider its implications for social scientific research. We provide a coherent picture of what the main criticisms are, and draw together and disambiguate common themes. In particular, we explain how the False Discovery Rate is calculated, and how this differs from a p-value. We also make explicit the Bayesian nature of many recent criticisms, a dimension that is often underplayed or ignored. We conclude by identifying practical steps to help remediate some of the concerns identified. We recommend that (i) far lower significance levels are used, such as $0.01$ or $0.001$, and (ii) p-values are interpreted contextually, and situated within both the findings of the individual study and the broader field of inquiry (through, for example, meta-analyses).

Published in Frontiers in Physics: Vidgen B and Yasseri T (2016) P-Values: Misunderstood and Misused. Front. Phys. 4:6

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Bayes, Physics, QC1-999, prevalence, Bayesian inference, FOS: Physical sciences, p-value, significance, Statistics - Applications, Computer Science - Computers and Society, big data, statistics, Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Computers and Society (cs.CY), p-hacking, Prevalence, Applications (stat.AP), Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
69
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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gold