Accurate prediction of ground surface settlements induced by shield construction is of great significance for ensuring the safety of shield construction. This paper proposes a ground surface settlement prediction method for shield tunneling based on Bayesian updating. The sequential observation data during the advance of excavation is utilized to update the key soil parameters, leading to a more accurate settlement prediction for the subsequent excavation stages. Response surfaces are constructed to replace the finite element model as the forward models for higher computational efficiency. A tunnel excavation project in Hangzhou, China, is selected to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The shield excavation face passes through four soil layers, and two soil parameters (i.e., Young’s modulus and friction angle) of these soil layers are selected as random variables to be updated. The results show that the soil parameters can be effectively updated based on the observation data at multiple points and various excavation stages. The predictions of ground surface settlements are improved by using the updated soil parameters. The prediction accuracy of the proposed method increases as more stages of observation data are sequentially obtained and incorporated.