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Frontiers in Earth Science
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Frontiers in Earth Science
Article . 2023
Data sources: DOAJ
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A modified vertical eddy diffusivity parameterization in the HWRF model based on large eddy simulations and its impact on the prediction of two landfalling hurricanes

Authors: Xin Li; Zhaoxia Pu; Jun A. Zhang; Jun A. Zhang; Zhan Zhang;

A modified vertical eddy diffusivity parameterization in the HWRF model based on large eddy simulations and its impact on the prediction of two landfalling hurricanes

Abstract

Vertical eddy diffusivity (VED) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) has a significant impact on forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity. VED uncertainties in PBL parameterizations can be partly attributed to the model’s inability to represent roll vortices (RV). In this study, RV effects on turbulent fluxes derived from a large eddy simulation (LES) by Li et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 2021, 48, e2020GL090703) are added to the VED parameterization of the PBL scheme within the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. RV contribution to VED is parameterized through a coefficient and varies with the RV intensity and velocity scale. A modification over land has also been implemented. This modified VED parameterization is compared with the original wind-speed-dependent VED scheme in HWRF. Retrospective HWRF forecasts of Hurricanes Florence (2018) and Laura (2020) are analyzed to evaluate the impacts of the modified VED scheme on landfalling hurricane forecasts. Results show that the modified PBL scheme with the RV effect leads to an improvement in 10-m maximum wind speed forecasts of 14%–31%, with a neutral to positive improvement for track forecasts. Improved wind structure and precipitation forecasts against observations are also noted with the modified PBL scheme. Further diagnoses indicate that the revised PBL scheme enhances moist entropy in the boundary layer over land, leading to improved TC intensity prediction compared to the original scheme.

Keywords

roll vortices, numerical prediction, Science, Q, hurricanes, landfall, parameterization, planetary boundary layer

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold