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Frontiers in Earth Science
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Frontiers in Earth Science
Article
License: CC BY
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Frontiers in Earth Science
Article . 2021
Data sources: DOAJ
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Four Global Catastrophic Risks – A Personal View

Authors: Russell Blong;

Four Global Catastrophic Risks – A Personal View

Abstract

Global catastrophic risks (GCRs) affect a larger than hemispheric area and produce death tolls of many millions and/or economic losses greater than several trillion USD. Here I explore the biophysical, social-economic, demographic and cultural strands of four global catastrophic risks – sea level rise, a VEI 7 eruption, a pandemic, and a geomagnetic storm – one human-exacerbated at the least, one geological, one biological in large part, and one from space. Durations of these biophysical events range from a day or two to more than 100 years and the hazards associated range from none to numerous. Each of the risks has an average return period of no more than a few hundred years and lie within a range where many regulators ordinarily demand efforts in the case of less extreme events at enhancing resilience. Losses produced by GCRs and other natural hazards are usually assessed in terms of human mortality or dollars but many less tangible losses are at least as significant. Despite the varying durations, biophysical characteristics, and the wide array of potential consequences, the aftermath at global (and at more granular scales) can be summarised by one of four potential futures. While this assessment considers the present and the near future (the Anthropocene), much of this appraisal applies also to global catastrophic risks in the Early Holocene.

Keywords

global catastrophic risks, sea level rise, pandemic, geomagnetic storm, Science, Q, economic losses, VEI 7 eruption

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold