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Causal effect of PM2.5 on the urban heat island

Authors: Rybarczyk, Yves; Zalakeviciute, Rasa; Ereminaite, Marija; Costa-Stolz, Ivana;

Causal effect of PM2.5 on the urban heat island

Abstract

The planet is experiencing global warming, with an increasing number of heat waves worldwide. Cities are particularly affected by the high temperatures because of the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This phenomenon is mostly explained by the land cover changes, reduced green spaces, and the concentration of infrastructure in urban settings. However, the reasons for the UHI are complex and involve multiple factors still understudied. Air pollution is one of them. This work investigates the link between particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) and air temperature by convergent cross-mapping (CCM), a statistical method to infer causation in dynamic non-linear systems. A positive correlation between the concentration of fine particulate matter and urban temperature is observed. The causal relationship between PM2.5 and temperature is confirmed in the most urbanized areas of the study site (Quito, Ecuador). The results show that (i) the UHI is present even in the most elevated capital city of the world, and (ii) air quality is an important contributor to the higher temperatures in urban than outlying areas. This study supports the hypothesis of a non-linear threshold effect of pollution concentration on urban temperature.

Country
Sweden
Keywords

causation, Big Data, urban temperature, non-linear effects, Geovetenskap och relaterad miljövetenskap, statistical inferences, Information technology, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, T58.5-58.64, Civil Engineering, Samhällsbyggnadsteknik, air quality

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold
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