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Review of Economic Dynamics
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.1184/r1/...
Other literature type . 1970
Data sources: Datacite
https://dx.doi.org/10.1184/r1/...
Other literature type . 1970
Data sources: Datacite
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Model Uncertainty and Liquidity

Authors: Bryan R. Routledge; Stanley E. Zin;

Model Uncertainty and Liquidity

Abstract

Extreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model such as in derivative markets like the market for mortgage backed securities or credit derivatives. Moreover, the observed behavior of traders and institutions that places a large emphasis on \worst-case scenarios" through the use of \stress testing" and \value-at-risk" seems different than Savage expected utility would suggest. In this paper, we capture model-uncertainty using an Epstein and Wang (1994) uncertainty-averse utility function with an ambiguous underlying asset-returns distribution. To explore the connection of uncertainty with liquidity, we specify a simple market where a monopolist financial intermediary makes a market for a propriety derivative security. The market-maker chooses bid and ask prices for the derivative, then, conditional on trade in this market, chooses an optimal portfolio and consumption. We explore how uncertainty can increase the bid-ask spread and, hence, reduces liquidity. Our infinite-horizon example produces short, dramatic decreases in liquidity even though the underlying environment is stationary. We show how these liquidity crises are closely linked to the uncertainty aversion effect on the optimal portfolio. Effectively, the uncertainty aversion can, at times, limit the ability of the market-maker to hedge a position and thus reduces the desirability of trade, and hence, liquidity.

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Keywords

150399 Business and Management not elsewhere classified, FOS: Economics and business, jel: jel:G13, jel: jel:G10

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
127
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
bronze