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Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China

Authors: Chamon, Marcos; Liu, Kai; Prasad, Eswar;

Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China

Abstract

China’s household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-savings profile has become U-shaped. We find that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms help explain both of these phenomena. Using a panel of Chinese households covering the period 1989-2006, we document that strong average income growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in income uncertainty. Interestingly, the permanent variance of household income remains stable while it is the transitory variance that rises sharply. A calibration of a buffer-stock savings model indicates that rising savings rates among younger households are consistent with rising income uncertainty and higher saving rates among older households are consistent with a decline in the pension replacement ratio for those retiring after 1997. We conclude that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms can account for over half of the increase in the urban household savings rate in China since the mid-1990s as well as the U-shaped age-profile of savings.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

China, buffer-stock savings, China, household savings, income uncertainty, pension reforms, buffer-stock savings, ddc:330, 38 Economics, pension reforms, household savings, income uncertainty, 3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics, Clinical Research, D91, J3, Aging;China;Economic models;External shocks;Pension reforms;Private savings;Private sector;Income distribution;Wages;household savings, income uncertainty, buffer-stock savings, pension, pension reform, retirement, survey, calibration,, Generic health relevance, 44 Human Society, E21, jel: jel:D91, jel: jel:E21, jel: jel:J3

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
205
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
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