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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article
License: CC BY NC
Data sources: UnpayWall
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Journal of Financial Economics
Article
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: UnpayWall
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Journal of Financial Economics
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

Authors: Khandani, Amir E.; Lo, Andrew W; Merton, Robert;

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

Abstract

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market—rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities—led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is benign, but when they occur simultaneously, as they did over the past decade, they impose an unintentional synchronization of homeowner leverage. This synchronization, coupled with the indivisibility of residential real estate that prevents homeowners from deleveraging when property values decline and homeowner equity deteriorates, conspire to create a “ratchet” effect in which homeowner leverage is maintained or increased during good times without the ability to decrease leverage during bad times. If refinancing-facilitated homeowner-equity extraction is sufficiently widespread—as it was during the years leading upto the peak of the U.S. residential real-estate market—the inadvertent coordination of leverage during a market rise implies higher correlation of defaults during a market drop. To measure the systemic impact of this ratchet effect, we simulate the U.S. housing market with and without equity extractions, and estimate the losses absorbed by mortgage lenders by valuing the embedded put-option in non-recourse mortgages. Our simulations generate loss estimates of $1.5 trillion from June 2006 to December 2008 under historical market conditions, compared to simulated losses of $280 billion in the absence of equity extractions.

Country
United States
Keywords

Systemic Risk, Real Estate, Household Finance, Subprime, Financial Crisis, Risk; Financial Crisis; Household Finance; Real Estate; Subprime, jel: jel:E47, jel: jel:G01, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:E37, jel: jel:F47, jel: jel:G13, jel: jel:G21, jel: jel:E27, jel: jel:E17, jel: jel:R21, jel: jel:G18, jel: jel:E6, jel: jel:R28, jel: jel:R38, jel: jel:R15

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
119
Top 10%
Top 1%
Top 1%
Green
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