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Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez : una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del gobierno colombiano

Authors: José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez; Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia; Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres;

Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez : una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del gobierno colombiano

Abstract

Se estima la descomposicion del break-even inflation a partir de un modelo afin de 6 factores de la estructura a terminos, nominal y real, de los bonos soberanos de Colombia, dentro de los cuales se incluye un factor asociado a la liquidez. Esta medida se descompone en expectativas de inflacion, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez para el periodo comprendido entre 06 de 2004 y 04 de 2015. Los resultados obtenidos indican que el break-even inflation es una medida apropiada de las expectativas de inflacion en el corto plazo (2 anos). Adicionalmente, se encuentra que la prima de riesgo inflacionario disminuye en el tiempo, lo que se puede deber al aumento de la confianza en la politica monetaria por parte de los agentes. Por ultimo, la prima de liquidez toma valores muy pequenos para la 05ria de los periodos de tiempo y solo tiene efectos considerables durante ciertos episodios a lo largo de la curva de rendimientos, como el ocurrido durante el primer semestre de 2006.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
hybrid