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Data revisions and the output gap

Authors: Juan Manuel Julio-Román;

Data revisions and the output gap

Abstract

Preliminary and delayed Colombian GDP reports are replaced with optimal in-sample now-casts of "true" GDP figures derived from a model for data revisions. The new GDP time series is augmented with optimal out-of-sample forecasts and back-casts of the "true" GDP figures derived from the same model. The trend-cycle component of the augmented GDP series is filtered. The resulting gap is more resistant than the ordinary HP filter to the end of sample optimal filtering problem as well as to GDP revisions and delays. The short term noise of the final output gap estimate is also reduced. Adjusting for data revisions and delays reduce the uncertainty of estimated gaps. The extended and further extended HP estimates of the output gap show an impressive efficiency gain with respect to the ordinary HP gap, 43% and 47% respectively, on average. The new extension increases the efficiency in 7.4%, on average, with respect to extended HP estimates. These results constitute a benchmark to future work on real time estimation of the output gap under GDP revisions and delays in Colombia.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
hybrid