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Expectativas, tasa de interés y tasa de cambio: paridad cubierta y no cubierta en Colombia 2000-2007

Authors: Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas; Diego Mauricio Vásquez; Juan José Echavarría-Soto;

Expectativas, tasa de interés y tasa de cambio: paridad cubierta y no cubierta en Colombia 2000-2007

Abstract

En este trabajo se utilizan tasas marginales de interes, tasas de cambio forwards y encuestas sobre expectativas de devaluacion con el fin de verificar las hipotesis de paridad cubierta (PC) y no cubierta (PNC) de las tasas de interes en Colombia en el periodo 2000-2007. Se encuentra evidencia de cumplimiento de PC para periodos de maduracion de 1 ano (y se sugiere que tambien podria ser valida para periodos menores) y evidencia de PNC para periodos superiores a 1 semestre. La "anomalia" que se detecta para algunos periodos de maduracion al utilizar el supuesto de expectativas racionales y el diferencial de tasas de interes como variable independiente parece ser el resultado de variables omitidas o mal medidas. En este contexto merece enfasis especial el sesgo que introduce el supuesto de expectativas racionales.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
hybrid