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Tasa de cambio y crecimiento económico en Colombia durante la última década

Authors: María Angélica Arbeláez; Juan José Echavarría-Soto;

Tasa de cambio y crecimiento económico en Colombia durante la última década

Abstract

Este documento utiliza el modelo sugerido por Bleakley y Cowan (2002) para analizar el impacto de la tasa de cambio real sobre la inversion, las ventas y las utilidades de las empresas colombianas en el periodo 1994- 2002. Se encuentra un impacto claramente positivo. Tres factores explican la respuesta favorable a la tasa de cambio: la respuesta de los exportadores e importadores es alta y rapida en Colombia (fuertes efectos competitividad); el nivel de deuda externa es mucho menor que en otros paises de la region y ha descendido en los ultimos anos; y existe un calce entre actividad y deuda (se endeudan mas las firmas exportadoras y las multinacionales). El stock de capital inicial se corrige con base en la metodologia sugerida por Harberger (1969), y la informacion sobre deuda externa se mejora sensiblemente al utilizar la informacion interna del Banco de la Republica. Se utiliza la tecnica econometrica sugerida por Arellano y Bover (1995), apropiada cuando el numero de anos es corto y la persistencia de la variable dependiente es alta, pero tambien se reportan los resultados con la metodologia sugerida por Arellano y Bond (1991). Los resultados de ambas metodologias son consistentes, en parte porque el nivel de persistencia observado para la variable dependiente es relativamente bajo.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
hybrid