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Intelligent Data Analysis
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Intelligent Data Analysis
Article . 2023
Data sources: mEDRA
DBLP
Article . 2023
Data sources: DBLP
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Bayesian estimation of decay parameters in Hawkes processes

Authors: Tiago Santos; Florian Lemmerich; Denis Helic;

Bayesian estimation of decay parameters in Hawkes processes

Abstract

Hawkes processes with exponential kernels are a ubiquitous tool for modeling and predicting event times. However, estimating their decay parameter is challenging, and there is a remarkable variability among decay parameter estimates. Moreover, this variability increases substantially in cases of a small number of realizations of the process or due to sudden changes to a system under study, for example, in the presence of exogenous shocks. In this work, we demonstrate that these estimation difficulties relate to the noisy, non-convex shape of the Hawkes process’ log-likelihood as a function of the decay. To address uncertainty in the estimates, we propose to use a Bayesian approach to learn more about likely decay values. We show that our approach alleviates the decay estimation problem across a range of experiments with synthetic and real-world data. With our work, we support researchers and practitioners in their applications of Hawkes processes in general and in their interpretation of Hawkes process parameters in particular.

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    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
hybrid